By: Adebowale Yusuf
August 20, 2024
Farmers have traditionally needed a consistent combination of sun, warmth, and rain to produce the food necessary for human sustenance, making agriculture a highly weather-dependent industry. Smallholder farmers are at the forefront of the threat posed by climate change to these hitherto regular growing cycles. Family farms provide between 75 and 80 percent of the world’s food, according to the UN; therefore, the effects of climate change on agriculture may have an impact that extends well beyond individual farmers and their families. According to models developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute, by 2050, only 24 percent of the world’s maize could be produced. Due to the significant impacts that altered weather patterns and a rise in extreme weather conditions have on agricultural productivity, there is a close relationship between climate change and agriculture.
In Manitoba, a province known for its abundant farmland, the effects of climate change are becoming more apparent. Manitoba’s municipalities rely significantly on sustainable agriculture to maintain local economies and provide food security. These municipalities are crucial to implementing plans for climate resilience and mitigation. Climate change is expected to bring economic, social, and ecological changes to Manitoba and the rest of Canada, including hotter summers, variable weather, and increased risks of droughts and floods. Municipalities must prepare for these changes by considering climate change impacts in planning documents and identifying actions to reduce risks.
Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Manitoba
Manitoba’s climate has seen significant changes, including increased frequency of extreme weather events, changed precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures. The productivity of agriculture is significantly in danger due to these changes, which will also affect soil quality, livestock health, and crop yields. With dangers including melting ice sheets, rising oceans, droughts, heat waves, flash floods, stronger storms, extinction of plants and animals, depletion of marine life, and difficulties in generating a sufficient food supply, agriculture is probably going to be the most affected and damaged sector by climate change. Crop simulation models were utilized in the early stages of estimating the potential harms of climate change to agriculture. However, when economists became engaged, more opportunities for adaptation were incorporated into agricultural production models. Early Canadian research indicated that farmers in western Canada might profit even if they planted crops that would thrive in the altered climate. Climate-change damages in primary sectors have been estimated using two different techniques: numerical solutions to a limited optimization model and the hedonic approach. The hedonic approach uses the Ricardian land rentals theory to develop an econometric (statistical) model for predicting damages. The second method uses numerical solutions to a constrained optimization model and was utilized by many researchers. Both have gained popularity in assessing the advantages or disadvantages of climate change. The estimates of the damages caused by climate change differ among industries and nations; some base their estimates on economic theories, some conflate benefits and costs, and others do not even quantify the damages in monetary terms. Policymakers who have to weigh public infrastructure, health, and education initiatives against mitigating the effects of climate change are impacted by this uncertainty. Economists are the ones who usually perform top-down modeling.
Climate Resilience and Mitigation Efforts on Agriculture
In agriculture, climate resilience detects, anticipates, and adapts to potentially dangerous climatic occurrences, trends, or disturbances.
Manitoba’s municipalities are adopting various resilience strategies, such as:
- Crop Diversification: Planting various crops to spread risk and improve soil health.
- Improved Irrigation and Water Management: Utilizing advanced irrigation techniques to optimize water use.
- Resilient Crop Varieties: Developing and planting crop varieties that can withstand extreme weather conditions.
Mitigation entails increasing carbon sequestration and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Among the methods are:
- Sustainable Farming Methods: Cover crops, rotational grazing, and conservation tillage.
- Soil carbon improvement and agroforestry are two methods of sequestering carbon.
Particular projects in Manitoba The Growing Forward 2 program, which encourages environmentally friendly farming methods and technical advancements to cut emissions, is one of several initiatives in Manitoba that support sustainable practices.
Governments and policies’ assistance roles with different tiers of governments are essential in advancing climate mitigation and resilience. Initiatives in sustainable agriculture receive financing and support from programs like the Canadian Agricultural Partnership.
Non-Governmental Organizations and Community Initiatives: Farmers have personally witnessed how a changing climate affects them, and they should lead the way in developing solutions since they are on the front lines of climate change.NGOs and community groups make a substantial contribution through funding, direct action, and education. Resources for comprehending climate impacts and solutions are made available by initiatives such as the Climate Atlas of Canada project of the Prairie Climate Centre (Prairie Climate Centre, 2019).
Challenges and Opportunities
With the municipalities varied land base, highly skilled labour force, and value-added processors, Manitoba’s agriculture sector can lead the world in food processing. It stimulates economic growth, draws investment, encourages research, and provides jobs. The enteric fermentation of livestock and nitrogen fertilizer are the leading causes of Manitoba’s agriculture sector’s 32 percent contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. However, agricultural soils and biomass can also operate as carbon sinks with better techniques like tillage and rotational methods.
There are difficulties in implementing resilience and mitigation strategies, including financial constraints, restricted access to technology, and a lack of policy support. These are some of the challenges of implementing these techniques, especially in Latin America and situations similar to those in Manitoba.
Manitoba’s agriculture is significantly impacted by climate change; hence, strong resilience and mitigation measures are required. Governments, non-governmental organizations, and the corporate sector must work together. Municipalities should Integrate Agriculture and climate change projections into local planning processes, conduct risk and vulnerability assessments, and refine actions to mitigate risks and vulnerabilities, connecting actions to funding and timelines.
Developing countries are not keen on taking action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions if it slows economic growth. Climate change mitigation should focus not on carbon dioxide alone but on all other climate factors. One low-cost solution to global warming is injecting sulfur into the stratosphere, which could rapidly reduce temperatures. Another geoengineering solution uses carbon capture and storage technologies to cool the planet or release CO2 to warm the globe. Economists have ranked several options for addressing climate change, including engineering, research and development, technology transfer, adaptation, terrestrial carbon sinks, and cutting anthropogenic carbon dioxide or methane emissions. There are chances to improve resilience and mitigation despite obstacles. While more robust legislative frameworks and international collaboration can offer the required support, more investment in research and development can produce creative solutions, emphasise precision farming technology, fund the Center for Sustainable Agriculture, and implement an ecological goods and services program. In addition, municipalities should assess and review the opportunities, hazards, and vulnerabilities that extreme weather events and climate change pose to agriculture in their regions and create plans to deal with them accordingly. It is pertinent to note and emphasize that continuous adaptation and innovation are crucial. Stakeholders must commit to supporting sustainable agriculture to ensure food security and economic stability for future generations.
References:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2018). Resilient crop varieties. Retrieved (August 10th, 2024) from Agriculture Canada.
FAO. (2017). Climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Retrieved (August 14th, 2024) from FAO.org
Government of Canada. (2021). Climate change and agriculture. Retrieved (August 16th, 2024) from Canada.ca
Manitoba Agriculture. (2020). Sustainable Agriculture Practices. Retrieved (August 11th, 2024) from Manitoba.ca
Sean Goertzen (2019). Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Manitoba. International Institute for Sustainable Development. IISD.org
Van Kooten, G.C. (2013). Economic Assessment of the Damages Caused by Global Warming. In: Climate Change, Climate Science and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4988-7_7