By: Adebowale Yusuf
October 30, 2024
Today, climate change, inflation, and political instability are a perfect storm facing agriculture – the backbone of many economies. The accumulation of these crises together is not only further intensifying the vulnerabilities in food production, trade and rural livelihoods around the globe, but also increasing the potential for conflict. The challenge is to understand the complex interplay of these factors and find modalities that would be sustainable and help to build food security, stabilize the economy, and foster rural development.
Climate Change: Threatening Agricultural Stability
Climate patterns are deeply rooted in agriculture, and we are seeing that increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts, floods, and wildly shifting growing seasons is dangerous to food production on a global scale. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has cautioned that farm yields will fall drastically if warming currently in progress continues. They seek to restrict the global temperature rise to 1.5-2ºC above pre-industrial levels and include adaptation planning and execution. This objective only mitigates the dangers and effects of climate change. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, climate induced droughts have destroyed crop yields and left millions on the brink of food insecurity. Increased variability in rainfall adds to decreases in the primary staple food harvests in Ethiopia and Sub-Saharan Africa, as maize and teff harvests have declined. Last year, Pakistan, one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to global flooding, was hit by multiple heavily damaging floods, with crop damage including wheat, rice, millet, sorghum, sugar cane and cotton. The economic losses from these damages amounted to $1.3 billion. Heat stress also affects wheat yield in the North China Plain and reduces Australia total wheat yield. However, as time passes water shortages will increase globally, and drought impacted areas will grow from 15.4% to 44.0% by the year 2100 with Africa being the most vulnerable. Severe floods are hitting Uganda, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini. For Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi to declare emergency droughts, warns Oxfam, an impending humanitarian crisis is imminent. The country will have to ask for $2 billion in aid to feed more than 2,700,000 Zimbabweans at risk of hunger in Zimbabwe alone.
Governments and communities must comprehend the ramifications of climate change to strategize and prepare for issues. Further global warming is unavoidable, and the changing climate patterns in Canada will persist. These changes may result in heightened extreme heat, diminished extreme cold, extended growing seasons, increased precipitation, reduced snow and ice cover duration, and rising sea levels. Climate variability in Manitoba is leading to shorter growing seasons and water scarcity in some regions that put rural agricultural businesses at risk of becoming unsustainable. Adoption of climate resilient practices – such as precision farming, improved varieties seeds and seedlings, drought resistant crops and water conservation methods – is taking place at a slow pace amongst farmers,. But this adoption must accelerate with adoption of mitigation options to compensate for effects of climate change.
Inflation: Driving Up Food Prices
Rising gas and fertilizer prices, global inflation, the pandemic, and the Ukraine war have impacted economies worldwide. The reason for this is that these inflationary pressures not only feed into agricultural inputs, but into the costs of production. In turn, inflation is passed on unhedged to consumers as higher food prices are put in place. In low-income countries, where the cost of inputs constitutes a relatively bigger cost burden for smallholder farmers, these, in turn, result in difficulties for rural communities to absorb the costs of inputs. This inherently leads to difficulty in maintaining functionality and profitability. Between 2000 and 2050, food prices for primary food crops and livestock-related products will increase 2.5 fold due to climate change. Studies from the Finnish Research Institute demonstrate detrimental effects on the food supply in North and East Africa, claiming that as much as 30% of the world’s food supply could be in a zero yield state by the end of the twenty-first century if greenhouse gas emissions are not regulated.
Food prices have reached record highs around the world in 2023, and the long-term effects to food prices impact food security and sustainability and vulnerable populations and agricultural practice. Rising costs, structural transformations, and policy responses influence food prices and place additional burdens on both producers and consumers. Inflation not only affects farmers’ ability to purchase essential supplies, but limits access to credit and financing – further hindering their ability to adopt new technologies or invest in sustainable farming practices. Elevated food costs can exacerbate malnourishment, impacting between 60 to 110 million individuals and elevating the death toll. They also provide problems for sustainability because higher input costs for agriculture result in lower yields and carbon emissions. There is a negative correlation between food costs and the Sustainable Development Goals.
Political Instability: Disrupting Agricultural Supply Chains
Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, The global economy must rebound from its setbacks while facing persistent inflation driven by rising energy prices – choking supply of the supply chain and geopolitical issues. It undercuts purchasing power parity, blocks economic development and engenders uncertainty. Trade, investment and supply chains are all hindered by political instability, the Ukraine crisis is one such manifestation, there are many around the world, which in turn slows GDP growth.Climate change threatens GDP by weakening infrastructure and productivity of agriculture via phenomena like droughts, floods and hurricanes. These issues exacerbate economic volatility and prevent out of the crisis, recovery.
The graph below includes GDP growth and annual change throughout the year from 1961 to 2022 with varied rates and intervals of recession all across the globe. For the 1960s to the 1970s, absolute GDP had an uplifting movement, while the 1980s saw a decline. It reversed sharply after the global financial crisis of 2008 in 2009 and 2010. The steepest drop, followed by a strong growth in 2021, were triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 triggered the steepest drop followed by a strong growth in 2021. It can be ascertained that the current dominant tendency portends cyclical economic upswing with definite recessions followed by recovery.
Political instability and violence hinder agriculture, resulting in food shortages and malnutrition. Efforts to support agricultural innovation and sustainability in vulnerable areas have been Middle East conflicts and Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict that are driving displacement and climate induced migration.
The Agricultural Nexus: A Fragile System
The confluence of inflation, political unrest, and climatic change results in a delicate agricultural system that is ill-equipped to handle growing difficulties. Political upheaval frequently ensues when inflation makes farming less profitable, especially in nations where agriculture is the main source of income. Climate change also makes this instability worse by adding to the already-limited supply of resources like land and water. A recent global analysis reveals that over one-third of tree species are threatened with extinction, impacting biodiversity and accelerating climate change. Trees are crucial for absorbing carbon pollution, yet deforestation, invasive species, climate-induced sea level rise, and storms endanger their survival. It also kills countless dependent species showing the fragile interconnect nature of ecosystems. Trees help to deliver oxygen to and provide food and habitat for life on Earth.
For instance, Sudan has seen a cycle of food shortages and violence due to a combination of political turmoil, rising food prices, and climate variability. This illustrates the damaging interaction between these global issues. Namibia plans to kill over 700 wild animals, including elephants, zebras, and hippos, to support communities facing severe drought-driven food insecurity. With more than half the population at risk of hunger, meat from the culling will aid drought relief. As well, Namibia, like much of southern Africa, faces extreme drought, intensified by El Niño and climate change, causing widespread crop failure.
The Interconnectedness of Global Crises
It is essential to understand that these crises are not isolated. Climate change intensifies inflation by disrupting supply chains and production. Inflation fuels political unrest by driving economic inequities. Political instability and violence make addressing climate change and economic reform more difficult by creating governance vacuums and reducing international cooperation.
What Can Be Done?
Sustainable Agricultural Practices (Technology and Innovation): Practices and technologies involving the application of climate smart agriculture (such as agroforestry, crop diversification, soil health management, satellite images, soil sensors, and data analytics) are required to improve resistance to climate change, use of resources efficiently and minimize waste. Access is still inequitable, especially in the most disadvantaged and remote rural areas. Governments as well as non-governmental organizations should work with farmers via financial incentives and technical support to make these changes.
Climate Resilience (Global Cooperation): Climate change, inflation, and political instability are interconnected issues that necessitate coordinated global responses. The adaptation of techniques (like water management, sustainable agriculture, and fostering biodiversity conservation) have to be emphasized for countries to mitigate environmental degradation which will in turn compels countries to international collaboration to mitigate environmental degradation. Funding, technology transfer, and capacity building are available through organizations such as the FAO and World Food Programme, as well as other international organizations. All should play a lead role in bolstering agricultural resilience and security of global food security.
Economic Reform: Governments should implement strategies to manage inflation, especially by stabilizing the food and energy markets. Investments in green energy and sustainable agricultural practices may mitigate long-term inflationary pressures.
Strengthening Political Institutions: Developing more resilient political systems is crucial for addressing the difficulties of inflation and climate change. Governments must prioritize the establishment of stable and supportive agricultural policies, especially in areas susceptible to political instability. Ensuring fair trade practices, investing in infrastructure, and reducing bureaucratic barriers to agricultural innovation can help countries protect their agricultural sectors from inflationary shocks and political unrest. The instrument of the neoliberalism agenda should be eradicated. International institutions should refine and enhance their involvement in conflict prevention, extend support to vulnerable states prior to the escalation of instability into violence, and let each state’s government manage its resources. The global North should see the global South as a partner in development.
Without cooperation from governments, NGOs, and the private sector, agriculture is at risk from the effects of climate change, inflation and political instability, creating resilient systems necessary for its future. We need to invest in climate resilient agriculture, technology, and stable governments. Comprehensive policy measures are required to balance these results, lessen these effects, and encourage sustainable agriculture practices.
The current Canada federal target to limit greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer use by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030, with the ultimate goal of reaching net zero by 2050 in agriculture requires exploration of how to farm without the fossil fuel-based N fertilizer. Eliminating reliance on fossil fuel-based Nitrogen fertilizers, and reducing emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), is essential to sustainable agriculture. A shift toward biologically sourced fertilizers can significantly reduce environmental impact, improve soil health, and decrease greenhouse gases linked to synthetic N fertilizers. By focusing on natural nitrogen-fixation processes, agriculture can meet crop nutrient needs that align with long-term environmental goals, enhancing food security while minimizing harmful emissions.
Due to the considerable differences in socioeconomic conditions and agro-ecosystems, adaptation strategies must consider local, regional, and national cultural and environmental settings. Decreased crop yields may elevate food costs and adversely impact global agricultural income, resulting in a projected 0.3 percent annual decline in potential global GDP by 2100.
References:
C., Peter, Timmer. (2017). Food Security, Structural Transformation, Markets and Government Policy. Social Science Research Network.
Lulham, N., Warren, F.J., Walsh, K.A. and Szwarc, J. (2023). Canada in a Changing Climate: Synthesis Report; Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
Manitoba Road to Resilience (2024). A Community Climate Action Pathway to a Fossil Fuel Free Future. Volume 4.1 – Agriculture Solutions: Alternative N for improved soil health
Sam, Rabin., Almut, Arneth., Peter, Alexander. (2023). Energy and fertiliser price rises are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment. Doi: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6434.
The World Bank. 2024. World Development Indicators https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators/Type/TABLE/preview/on# accessed October 26th, 2024.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/climate/tree-species-threatened-extinction/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc accessed September 3rd, 2024.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/28/climate/namibia-kill-elephants-meat-drought/index.html?Date=20240828&Profile=cnnclimate&utm_content=1724858184&utm_medium=social&utm_source=threads accessed August 28th, 2024.